"How similar are Saylor's strategy and Luna?"
1. Structure of STRC and Terra (UST) and MSTR and Luna
(1) STRC = Terra: STRC must be pegged at $100 and maintain a fixed value, while Terra was a stablecoin that should be pegged at $1
(2) MSTR = Luna: To defend the $100 value of STRC, the asset faces the risk of dilution through paid issuance (capital increase); Luna, in order to defend Terra's value, the system can issue Luna indefinitely
(3) Strategy's Bitcoin = Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) reserve: the collateral that must be sold into the market as the last line of defense when the system collapses. In LFG's case, Bitcoin was also the collateral
(4) The possible 'death spiral' in the worst case
(4-1) Market conditions deteriorate
(4-2) To protect Terra's price, the anchor protocol raises interest rates to attract investors (for STRC, this is the dividend rate)
(4-3) Unable to cover the interest payment, the system issues Luna infinitely (for MSTR, this is a paid capital increase)
(4-4) If even Luna cannot cover it, LFG sells Bitcoin to maintain the peg (the same applies to MSTR)
2. Michael Saylor and Kwon Do-hyung's karma
(1) Did they speak recklessly?
(1-1) Kwon Do-hyung: 95% of altcoins will fail. But watching coins fail can also be entertaining
(1-2) Michael Saylor: People who treat fiat money as a store of value are beggars. The dollar is a melting ice block
(2) Did they play word games?
(2-1) LFG: The abbreviation of Luna Foundation Guard, LFG, also stands for the English‑speaking expression of “가즈아”, i.e., “Let's Fucking Go”
(2-2) FCKD: Combining the last letters of the strategy preferred shares STR(F), STR(C), STR(K), STR(D) yields FCKD, which appears to be an abbreviation of “FuCK Dollar”, meaning “fuck the dollar”
3. Have they had fraud histories before?
(1) Kwon Do-hyung's Basis Cash (BAC): At the end of 2020, before the Luna crisis, Kwon launched an algorithmic stablecoin called “Basis Cash” anonymously, similar to Luna. The coin collapsed 99.9% to $0.006
(2) Saylor's MSTR accounting scandal: In 2000, during the dot‑com bubble, Michael Saylor was fined by the SEC for accounting manipulation. The stock fell 99.9% to $0.45
4. Have they ever been on the cover of Forbes?
(1) The Forbes curse: The phenomenon where companies, CEOs, or wealthy individuals featured by Forbes later experience sharp decline, bankruptcy, etc. Kwon has none. However...
(1-1) September 1998 Michael Saylor: MicroStrategy appeared on the Nasdaq listing cover, with the stock price around $12~20
(1-2) January 2025 Michael Saylor: Appeared on the cover when Bitcoin broke $100,000. At that time Bitcoin price was $105,000
(Note that this is only a superficial comparison, please be aware.)
